Agnes Baker --- Pill Popper: Dunwich Hard Difficulty Playthr

Good writeup! I'm glad you're posting these.

I suspect you'll get much more clue-finding juice from "Look what I found!" rather than Newspaper.

I would definitely find room for Guts in an Agnes deck (maybe cutting the Fire Axe)--on Hard or above you need the help to consistently hit with Shrivelling. Plus, cards that draw through your deck are great for her because finding Shrivelling is so key. And it's useful against treacheries (and protecting your teammate against treacheries), too.

Hi @CaiusDrewart, I had "Look what I found!" in the deck originally but cut it for a couple of reasons. It can be a bit awkward because you want to use it when are reasonably sure you will fail, but not fail by much---and then there is the issue that you actually have to fail a skill test for it to work, which sometimes has negative repercussions.

Still, I'm not particularly enamored with the newspaper either.

It seems a bit strange to cut Fire Axe in order to get Guts for a little extra card draw... at that point you only have 2 combat cards in your whole deck, and if you run out ofammo you are in a lot of trouble. Think of it this way, if I draw that Guts and I have no Shrivelling, I'd much rather that #Guts actually be the Fire Axe that I just cut, so at least I can defend myself.

My plan is to transition the Fire Axes out of the deck, switching them out for Song of the Dead. That gives me 4 combat spell cards and plenty of ammo.

I normally try to use Arcane Initiate for spell card draw, but sometimes it doesn't work out... like when you draw Dark Memory, which I have done twice now right at the beginning of the game. The consolation prize is that I can keep Dark Memory in my hand, assign the 2 Horror to Arcane Initiate and get rid of the doom from him at least.

Your point about #Guts is well taken, but the plan with this deck is to lean more on your partner for combat in the early rounds. Agnes is pretty consistent against weaker creatures without need for Guts once she gets either a Holy Rosary or Ritual Candles. In later adventures, the expectation is that the additional boost from Peter Sylvestre should see me through. We'll see how it works out. This deck does have lots of icons in it even if it does not have Guts.

I agree Newspaper looks like an outlier here. "Look what I found!" certainly sounds like a more viable option. Remember your skill cannot be reduced below zero by the chaos bag, so on 2 shroud areas you are always able to play it unless you actually pass. If your only expecting to use it a couple of times even a Flashlight would do a similar job but with a few advantages (shroud zeroing and second/third uses within an act)

Im also still not sure about Ritual Candles, as they rarely make any meaningful difference to your odds (In my personal opinion they are a terrible card, not worth the action to play). That said it might be different matter mitigating the token effects on hard mode possibly - I should really try them on hard one day. Do you have a feel for them on hard? If so i`d love to hear it. Despite not liking them I really wish they were good as I was quite excited when i first saw them. If they are not performing ofc i would be inclined to overwrite them before the Fire Axe. More attack card options in the deck simply improves draw consistency.

I also wonder how you deal with larger enemies with no boosts yet. It looks like youve set up to use Upgraded Shrivelling and upgraded Rite of Seeking in the long term perhaps. thus reducing the need to be sure of finding the Holy Rosary/Upgraded Peter Sylvestre early or run Guts/Fearless. But thats not going to be easy in early games. That said i realise you didnt draw these that game. Are you relying on the passive damage attacks predominantly then and just healing it back with Liquid Courage from Jenny? Certainly Fearless might be less important with external sanity repair on tap. Ive ran an agnes/jim pairing also with Liquid Courage as back up horror for when his trumpet doesnt show. This was mainly for comedy reasons but it was surprisingly solid and a lot of fun to play. That was on standard but i can see circumventing the need to take tests to deal damage as being a game changer in hard mode.

sorry - must have posted that just as you did. I realise you answer some of these points above. but i cant edit my comment anymore im afraid.

Hi @StartWithTheName,

First, let me say that Ritual Candles is a very good card on Hard. I play on Hard difficulty basically 100% of the time, so I have a feel for it. Mathematically, Ritual Candles are slightly better than having "+1/2" to all your stats. Let me explain:

In most skill tests on Hard, you are going to want to be +2, +3, or +4 on all your skill rolls. For those values there are typically "icon" chaos tokens at those levels, and they often match up with the number of non-icon tokens. So, there may be 2 "-2"s and 2 that are also at -2. There may be one "-3" normal token and the may be -3 as well, etc. So at the key levels the ones you are most likely to find yourself, if you lose a skill test by 1 without ritual candles, there is half a chance that Ritual Candles would have saved you.

People do not realize the value of ritual candles because you often win skill tests by multiple points, but by the same token Unexpected Courage often makes no difference, and you can only use it once.

An Unexpected Courage (which I think most people believe is a good card) will typically increase your probability of winning a skill test by about 35%, for one skill test.

On Hard difficulty, especially in those scenarios where the has a negative consequence, the correct breakpoint to reach for a skill is just high enough to beat the $skull modifier. In these cases Ritual candles increase your probability of success by ~12% for every skill test you take. But they are even better than that 12% would make them seem because the skill tests they are helping you win are the ones that---if you lost---would have a negative consequence!

This ended up being a long reply, so I will reply to the rest in another comment.

With regard to success rate without a bunch of skill cards. Once Agnes gets Holy Rosary out, she can generally take care of herself in the early adventures. Let's take a look:

In Extracurricular Activity there are a couple Yithian Observer, which have a combat of 4. Since is a -2 for this scenario, Agnes with a Holy Rosary will succeed 11/16 [~70%] of the time (10/16 [~60%] once her discard pile is 5 or more) against the biggest creatures, and that is without committing any of her many icons. If she has Lucky! in her hand, that goes up to 14/16 [~90%] or 13/16 [~80%] respectively.

In The House Always Wins, it is a bit tougher because is a -3, but you can pay it off with 3 resources. In that scenario there is a single big guy at 4 combat and some O'Bannion's Thug that are also at -4, but the latter only have 2 health, so you can often kill them through direct damage [Forbidden Knowledge or Painkillers]. Against the Servant of the Lurker, Agnes with Holy Rosary would only have about 50% chance (but jumps to 70% with Ritual Candles], so she would want to commit some cards there, but I'd expect Jenny to take care of the big guy here if at all possible.

Even though this deck has no Guts, it does have Unexpected Courage, and Lucky! and lots of icons to help when necessary.

But I am still thinking the Newspaper is marginal.

If you just want that last clue at the end of the game, "Look what I found!" can give you +2 as cheaply as Newspaper. It can also be used with Rite of Seeking, unlike Newspaper, and is excellent against 2-shroud locations (Agnes will usually fail an unboosted test against these, so you can use it pretty reliably.)

I still think Guts is a must. It's a significant bonus and it's almost completely free! Yes, Agnes may be able to scrape by without it, but she still shouldn't pass up something that efficient and that useful. And helping Jenny out against Rotting Remains etc is really important. I think Guts may well be the fourth most important card in an Agnes deck, after Shrivelling, Forbidden Knowledge, and Peter Sylvestre II.

Personally, for 2-player I would also include stuff like Overpower with an eye towards boosting Jenny, but that's just my preference. I really love skill cards. But whether you'll go that far or not, I think Guts is way too good to pass up.

Actually, make that fifth most important, since Lucky! is better as well. But the point stands, I think.

@CaiusDrewart, I'm curious what you would remove from this deck to make room for a Guts. Honest question. If Agnes' deck took 35 or 40 cards, I'd put the card in there for sure, but I don't see much that seems trimmable. Painkillers have proven immensely helpful.

Dropping Fire Axe puts Agnes in severe danger of running out of ammo and also leaves her prone to inconsistency because there are only 2 cards in the deck that let her fight. The last time I played The House Always Wins, I did not draw either of my Shrivelling, and things would have gone badly without the Fire Axe.

After I trade in both Fire Axes for Song of the Dead, I could see dropping my Emergency Cache for some other card, but at that point that other card is quite possibly Grotesque Statue

With regard to Newspaper, I'll have a chance to see its relative value in The Miskatonic Museum, which is the sort of scenario where a Newspaper should be useful. I'm certainly open to its not being worth keeping. Rite of Seeking has proven potent, though its side effect on a bad icon is pretty brutal.

I should mention that originally this deck has 2 Alyssa Grahams and at one point I toyed with Dark Horse to help pump up , so in some sense the Newspaper is a final remnant of that idea. I'm keeping it for now in case bad luck means you run out of Rite of Seeking charges (or lack the resources to bring it out) and need to resort to more normal investigation.

I suspect in the end Newspaper will be thrown out, but want to see how it does in the Museum.

@FBones: My first cut would probably be Ritual Candles because I am not very fond of that card. I find it excessively slow and potentially worthless depending on what the special tokens are. Remember that on Dunwich you only begin with 3 tokens that trigger the candles, and it's possible to keep it that way for a long time. Sometimes the Skulls don't have a negative effect (Essex County Express Blood on the Altar, The Miskatonic Museum) or have a negative effect but are only a -2 (Extracurricular Activity), and I think in either case the candles don't do much. In The House Always Wins they're better but it's almost as cheap to just spend the 3 resources. If you add a bunch of tablets to the deck then the candles start to look good, but if the deck is functioning well that won't happen ;)

I realize you like the candles, however. If you don't want to cut that, given that you have another competent combatant around--like Jenny Barnes--I think dropping the Fire Axe for Guts is a good idea. Agnes can sort of fight unarmed anyway. I would certainly rate Guts over Emergency Cache for Agnes. I would probably run both, but I think the former is more important. I would also run Guts over Unexpected Courage for her (though again, ideally I'd take both.)

@CaiusDrewart, thanks for the response. I'm curious--- how often do you play on Hard difficulty? From a simple mathematical view, on Hard difficulty ritual candles do end up being about equivalent to boosting all your stats by 1/2, so for 1 resource you are getting half the advantage of Dark Horse without he need to have an empty resource pool.

In The House Always Wins, paying the extra 3 resources is pretty painful, especially as Agnes. That scenario is intended to squeeze you in terms of resources. Also, in general Agnes running Rite of Seeking is pretty low on resources. Take a look at a typical playthrough: Assume:

1 Lucky: 1 resource

1 Ritual Candles: 1 resource

1 Fireaxe: 1 resource

3 uses of Fireaxe: 3 resources

1 Rosary : 2 resource

1 Arcane Initiate: 1 resource

1 Sylvestre: 3 resources

1 Shrivelling: 3 resources

1 Rite of Seeking: 4 resources

1 Ward of Protection: 1 resource

1 PainKillers: 1 Resource

Initial Startup Cash: -5 Resources

Forbidden Knowledge: -4 Resources

Take a drink: 2 resources

1 Gamble: 2 resources

1 Arousing Suspicion: 2 resources

That's 18 resources to cough up if you do not have emergency cache, 15 if you have an emergency cache. You really want that balance to be more like 10 if you do not intend on wasting money pulling resources... so paying 3 resources to negate a is not practicable.

And dropping the Fire Axe for #Guts is not really sustainable because I'll be converting Fire Axe to Song of the Dead very early.

So I think we are back to just Newspaper as a card that could be cut for either Guts or "Look what I found!".

I've played Agnes a lot, and I can tell you that she is very vulnerable to running out of ammo if all she has in her deck are two Shrivelling. And playing a scenario where you do not even get a Shrivelling is a real possibility.

@FBones: Interesting conversation here, thanks for your contributions.

I typically play on Expert, but sometimes I play on Hard, especially when I'm playing with other people.

I don't see how you can say that spending 3 to negate a Skull is not practicable, whereas spending 1 resource and 1 action to play Ritual Candles to hopefully accomplish something similar is. Of course, the Ritual Candles may work more than once, but you may also end up never having needed it at all.

I would also personally rate Guts over the Rosary and the Painkillers. I think including Painkillers and Forbidden Knowledge is not really necessary when you can only use Agnes's ability once per phase anyway, and chopping Painkillers would speed up the deck considerably. I just think skill cards are excellent. I mean, you're getting +2 Will whenever you want, for you or your teammate, essentially for free. And the more cards you have like that, the higher chance you have of drawing whatever you think the very best cards in the deck are. How good is that?

Do you play Magic? If you do, cards like Guts remind me a lot of something like Ponder or Preordain. Effectively reducing your deck size is generally a really good thing. But that's probably more than enough about Guts :)

Painkillers and Forbidden Knowledge allow you to use Agnes' ability twice before enemy phase begins: once in Mythos (there is a window in that phase) and once in investigation phase.

Compare that to just being able to use it once, after you have already been hit by the enemy---and only if that enemy deals horror damage (most of the enemies in The House Always Wins do not). This can be especially helpful against Whippoorwill. With Forbidden Knowledge or Painkillers, you can kill Whippoorwill using 0 actions.

And Holy Rosary is critical. Agnes can easily have 8 or so rolls in a game, many of them against enemies with combat 3 or 4 or rooms with shroud 3 or 4. So that is 8 or more skill tests she is going to boost you by about 20% on.

I could see switching one of my Unexpected Courages into a Guts.

Don't get me wrong, I do like Skill Cards, go look at the Jenny Deck that complements this one. I think it has 7 plus 2 Quick Thinking.

I do think it makes sense to try to put Guts in the deck somehow... Maybe I could live with just 1 Song of the Dead (and the 2 Shrivelling) given how much direct damage I'm packing (Forbidden Knowledge + Painkillers). Then I could switch out the other Fire Axe for a Guts. And I think that would give me enough economy to switch out one Emergency Cache for another.

Hi, first of all, I really appreciate these kinds of discussion so thank you. As a newcomer who just start playing on hard mode, it's helpfull :)

My current deck is really close to yours (and to the @StartWithTheName's Agnes Baker - Good stuff, no waiting deck) but with the following change:

• -2 Arcane Initiate
• +2 Guts

and

• -1 Newspaper
• -1 Delve Too Deep
• +2 "Look what I found!"

and

• -2 Ritual Candles
• +2 Fearless

I would like your opinion on the inclusion of Arcane Initiate and the absence of Fearless.

Thanks for the quick reply @FBones, and indeed sorry for my tardiness!

I think you may have missunderstood my point about Holy Rosary. I wasnt meaning you need Guts or similar in combination with the rosary, i just meant its nice to have options for fillers while your trying to find it. Your maths all assume you had it in play early, but that wont be the case as often as you might prefer. This is what i meant about setting up to upgrade Shrivelling and Rite of Seeking since you would then be able to use these irrespective of the rosary with improved accuracy. Basically these Guts and what not buy you time while you dig for your passive boosters, as well as is discussed above actually actively helping you dig for them a little.

Im still not sure about candles. Im not sure they add up to 1/2 a skill point in the way you describe. That sounds like youve taken some form of average perhaps. But averages dont really work in this situation. They ignore the variance basically. The issue I have with candles is that they only really change how you play if some of the , , , modifiers are exactly 1 point higher than you would otherwise pass on. So if you are aiming to test at 2 above skill to be at 80% or whatever, you only improve your odds if one of those icons are exactly at -3. This is ofc true with or without token on fail effects. Though I suppose in the case of being able to play Lucky, there is scope to be within a few extra points, -4 or -5 in the above example. Ofc in some scenarios they will be at one point higher than your planning, your example of The House Always Wins fits the -3s world extremely well, but in it Extracurricular Activity doesn't. So i suppose over a campaign they will fluctuate in an out of usefulness. With something like Adaptable to bring them in and out of the deck on demad in a pre spoiled run i think they would be fair game ofc.

The other way of dealing with hard mode modifiers when the tokes are at -3s ofc is just to drop an extra pip in, and i must admit I aim for 3 above on hard mode as often as I can muster which isnt usually hard to obtain at least for important draws. But looking at your maths above i might have been over compensating perhaps.

The times your most likely to get caught short are on encounter deck tests where you have less chance of predicting your needs. And i guess on "fail by X" tests they protect you from one damage/horror or whatever in some circumstances. So maybe candles are a actually designed to be a sort of weak pseudo encounter deck protection.

Anyway - reading my comment above back, i worry i may have come accross a little strong. certainly this wasnt my intention. I was actually just trying to offer advice and tell you the horror bomb agnes thing is a huge amount of fun to play. Its a nice deck imo!

@HeyMaxxou, Arcane Initiate is obviously double-edged, but it can be a huge help in terms of card draw. There are several ways to kill the Initiate off before the doom makes a difference. The most common way is to use Forbidden Knowledge or Painkillers to give him horror.

Another strategy is to put him out right before the doom advances, so it makes no difference. His doom is removed the next mythos and you get his benefit with no cost (other than waiting to put him out). Finally, you could just decide to eat the doom and use him for card draw. That generally only makes sense if you do not get Upgraded Peter Sylvestre, whom you would always want to play as soon as possible.

The initiate also acts as a horror soak so that you can limit putting horror on Agnes herself to only those cases where there is an enemy around to do damage too. These horror soaks are quite important because Agnes really wants to reserve her 7 available horror to cases where she can do direct damage.

The biggest headache with Arcane Initiate is that sometimes you will be forced to draw Dark Memory, which is a spell card. The only (small) upside to this is that you can keep Dark Memory in your hand that turn, and put the two horror on the initiate to kill him off (if you do not have any other method to do so).

With regard to fearless... the card itself is not bad. After all, Agnes really loves to be able to do direct damage, so healing horror is like giving her more "Tim" [prodigal sorcerer] attacks. But if you are playing with Jenny or Zoey, they are going to be packing Liquid Courage, so there is not so much need for the card, and if I'm having trouble finding room for Guts, I'm certainly going to have trouble finding room for anything else.

@StartWithTheName, no need to apologize for anything, maybe I should apologize if you took me coming across so hard that you were worried about how you came across :).

To look more analytically at Ritual Candles, there are two ways to consider the question. One is just to take an average of how much % they help you win a skill test. But the other way is to just observe that very frequently the number of "icon" tokens at a certain "normal" level equals the number of "non-icon" tokens at the same modifier. And if that is true, then you are getting an extra 1/2 point straight up---no averaging at all.

For example, consider The Devourer Below, the is a -3, there are two , and there are two "vanilla" -3 tokens in the bag, the is a -4, and there is one -4 token in the bag. The$ icon is -5, and there is one -5 token in the bag. So, if you are aiming at +3, +4, or +5, (which I think is reasonable at that stage given the monsters and xp that comes before), you are 100% always getting the advantage of essentially 1/2 extra skill point because half the time you would have lost by one, you now win.

But, of course, in that situation [The Devourer Below] you are really getting something immensely better than 1/2 because the skill tests on which the Ritual Candles make a difference all have negative additional consequences, which you have now avoided.

And that brings me to a final key point... I don't know your way to approach skill tests, but on Hard difficulty I generally approach them not just by probability of winning the skill test, but also by avoiding some significant negative outcome that is plausible based on the special tokens. This means I almost always (in those cases where I'm not completely crushing the skill test) aim for the token (if it has a negative consequence) because their are two of them.

So with Ritual Candles, this effectively mean I get to aim 1 less at every skill roll. Now, it does not always work out that way. As you mention, in Extracurricular Activity this would mean aiming at just +1, since the is -2. I wouldn't do that, and admit that Ritual Candles are not a great item there.

But I would say those are the outliers. Think about it this way: 2/3 of the time, Unexpected Courage does nothing. You play it, and because of the token drawn, it is inconsequential. [Okay, not quite 2/3 of the time because some skill tests depend on how much you lose by, and sometimes Unexpected Courage lets you lose by not as much, but 2/3 is about right].

Now, Ritual Candles takes a turn to play, so the bar is obviously higher for it. Instead of playing Ritual Candles you could have been doing something directly useful, which typically means performing a skill test. Most skill tests that do something useful on Hard are about 70-75% likely of success, so to make up for that one action, Ritual Candles need to make up for about 75% of one skill test, or a bit more since they cost a resource. But my point is that if they make a difference in a single skill test in a scenario, they have more than paid for themselves.

Out of curiosity, I went through the scenarios to see how many Ritual Candles had major effect versus the outliers where it had very little. Here are my findings, for whatever it is worth.

Major Effect:

The Gathering [if you can aim at +3, they help on any or draw. Otherwise they only help on or marginal +1 draws]

The Devourer Below [as described above]

The House Always Wins [INSANELY helpful here. You can aim at +2 and nearly add %20 percent to your success rate because there are 3 icons all at -3.]

Moderate Effect (normally because an icon had variable modifier)

The Midnight Masks [variable , but if you aim at +3, it avoids the terrible consequence.]

The Miskatonic Museum [Huge help when Hunting Horror is at your location, otherwise minor, but aiming at +2 will prevent bringing Hunting horror to you.

Essex County Express [ is variable--- but it does prevent a horrible conseqence on . If you happen to have a or token, it helps a bit more.

Blood on the Altar [Variable , helps a bit more if you have or added, for example by taking The Necronomicon

Undimensioned and Unseen [I haven't played this scenario, so I'm just guessing here, but it has variable with no negative consequence, and some help on and the .]

Carnevale of Horrors [random $skull, some help on the rest.]

Curse of the Rougarou[This one is interesting, the icon is not random, so it is always going to help you if you aim at +2, and you also get help on the as well, so big impact, but the has you draw another token, so you will probably lose anyway, and the has no negative consequence, so it is a straight +11% to your win probability, plus a bit more for those rare cases where you draw a and the +1 actually helps you beat the second icon's modifier.

Little Effect

Extracurricular Activity

Thanks @FBones, Its helpful to have all the links in one spot.

Im actually enjoying this discussion but im conscious that i didnt intend to hijack your decks thread for what essentially is an analysis of a specific card. I wonder if there is a better forum space for this sort of discussion somewhere where the numbers could be crunched properly if you'd be interested.

I say this because i get wildly different estimates of the benefits than you on all of these. To start by massively over simplifying the situation, if we ignore the token effects, then on the draws where you change a single token from a fail to a pass your not geting 1/2 a skill point of benefit, your getting 1/16. So in your The Devourer Below example, your getting 1/16 (~6% improved odds) of a skill point on each of the -3, -4 and -5 draws, (well 2/16 on ) and nothing at -1, -2, or -6 or worse. Now its not reasonable to add these together (or average them) since they never occur simultaneously. In the idealised cases like The House Always Wins, then you can add them together since both tokens have exactly the same modifier, but only on tests exactly 2 above str. However that is a scenario that I agree candles would make a meaningful difference since 2 above gives fairly reliable odds there.

Now this very importantly this simple 1/16 calculation ignores the impact of the token effects. If that you are protected against something small or negligible (perhaps dropping doom on nearest cultist when you expect to kill soon it or there simply arnt any in play) you probably dont care, but if its something serious (droppong doom on that cultist the opposite side of the board from you) you do. These are very game state dependent and you have the option to try to handly critical moments with cards like Unexpected Courage and let the risk stand for the times your less bothered. I realise any double pip skill card only covers you for 4-6 extra tokens (25-37% absolute risk improvement), though this is usually played when your 0 or 1 above skill test and adding going from 25% (if 0 above) to 50%, or 67% is a massive benefit especially applied in critical moments rather than used liberally. Candles in the same situation would take you form 25% to 31% (occasionally 37%) if they effect the test at all.

Interestingly with so many effects varying (or specifically escalating) over the course of a scenario, I wonder if candles are designed to be a catch up mechanic. If youve got towards the end of the scenario and your a bit behind the curb, they start to make more of an impact. But if youve found your rig pieces and you have full +1 skill bonuses on your key stat(s), like Holy Rosary/Magnifying Glass or whatnot, they do less.

I should also say i hadnt spotted the interaction with tokens that cause a second token revelation. If im reading the card right it looks like you could draw a followed by a $skull// and trigger them twice I think since the modifier doesnt specify once per test, its a reaction per revelation i think.

@StartWithTheName I think the basic idea of "Ritual Candles are roughly equivalent to getting a +1/2 to all your skill abilities" is a pretty important one to pin down. Let me try again, because maybe what I was trying to say did not come across.

When I say "Ritual Candles roughly give you +1/2 to all your skill tests" I don't mean they give you +50% probability of passing them. The "1/2" refers to "1/2 of a skill point". I say this because Ritual Candles generally give you about half the benefit of having a +1 to all your skills. I think I made this clear when I said they gave you half the benefit of a Dark Horse.

Now, the "+1/2 to all your skill rolls" is a rough heuristic. In some scenarios they give you substantially more value (because they really do give you the full 1/2 plus they stop the negative effects, which are huge). In others they give less than the +1/2 (in terms of probability of winning the skill test), but if you are talking about the usefulness of a card over several scenarios, the times when you don't get a full +1/2 point's worth of probability is balanced by the avoided negative effects of chaos token, so the overall value is about +1/2 to your skill tests.

In order to mathematically spell out the exact meaning, consider The Devourer Below. Let's look at the probabilities of success for reasonable situations.

+2 & No Ritual Candles: 44%

• 2 & Ritual Candles: 56%

+3 & No Ritual Candles: 67%

+3 & Ritual Candles: 72 %

+4 & No Ritual Candles: 78%

• 4 & Ritual Candles: 83%

• 5 & No Ritual Candles: 89%

So in each case adding a Ritual candle increased your %-likelihood of winning by one-half of the boost you would have gotten from a full extra point. This is what I mean by essentially adding "+1/2" to all your skill tests.

In terms of absolute raw possibilities: If you are in a position to aim at you will always get ~12% of raw probability added. If your target is avoiding some other icon, you may only get ~6%, and of course there are times where the skill point you are drawing at is not one below an icon, in which case the candles will not help you.

One note is that if you are playing Dunwich and make some false steps or just choose to take an alternate route to victory (e.g., cheating in the Casino), then Ritual candles will have added benefit as there are more nasty tokens in the bag.

As they have a icon, they are generally useful for committing to skill tests, especially for Agnes or Jim.

Ok i think i see what your getting at @FBones. You're essentially saying on the occasions that they would effect an icon`d token draw, they cover half of the tokens at that threshold. so if s are -3s they cover the skulls but not the non icon "muggle" -3 tokens. And if there are say 2 muggle -3s and 2 s, then its effecting half of the next threshold of icons (oh i hope ive got that). I think i was working in %ages since a skill point has varying value on tests.

Assuming im understanding you now - It doesnt feel like propper skill point to me as it is dependent on the threshold that your working at. as you point out in some of these SCs, the tokens are aligned in hard mode with usual target thresholds (-3/-4 to pass on 2 above or 3 above respectively etc), where in standard (the only place i ever tried them before i wrote them off) i would argue they almost never are. Ofc there are some scs where they dont align well too i guess but they could be chucked for pips then.

I think then it depends how often those icon "on fail" effects are game state relevant and you havent got another way to manage them (Unexpected Courage or whatnot) and as you points out various campaign points where you may have added tokens to the bag. Im not sure 6% bonus alone on specific thresholds does it for me. It doesnt feel that big of a difference to justify a deck slot, but i can see that being a matter of taste. 12% on the other hand feels a bit more substantial, so i suspect it all very much depends on those skulls being at exactly -3 for my personal tastes i think if we were to look at the % benefit in abstract of the token effects.

Anyway - thank you for humouring my nerdy side :) interesting debate. Would love to hear how you get along.

@StartWithTheName, just thought you might be interested in this post I made in case you want to discuss this in a better forum:

www.reddit.com

@StartWithTheName, also, I totally agree that Ritual Candles are not worth it on Standard Difficulty. Hard is a very different ball game.

Im afraid I dont do reddit, but thanks for the link.

If it helps I would still avoid describing it as 1/2 a skill point since it only functions in certain scenarios and at certain threshold mind. I think its fairer to describe it in % terms at scenario determined thresholds that are commonly (but not dependably) in desirable ranges. But by the look of the discussion the thread seems to have focussed on the card valuation index youve designed anyway. I wont comment on that since I take a different approach there too and ive monopolized this thread too much already I think. Anyway - interesting read. Looks like its gathering a bit of interest.

Actually. i feel i helped instigate this discussion it would be rude for me not to help develop it. going to give reddit a go. please forgive me if i stop responding though, I have a history of forgetting to check these sorts of things!

Love the thought process behind this deck.

Any comments on whether the Song of the Dead + Ritual Candles combo works out?

Well, you generally want to make sure you have enough skill so that you win on a skull icon (since there are two in the bag, and they often have a negative consequence), but obviously you even more want that to be true when playing Song of the Dead.

In practice, however, by the time you get Song of the Dead out, you often have enough other gear that (coupled with the +1 you already get from the card), you often do not need the Ritual Candles boost.

What I do like is using Grotesque Statue with Song of the Dead, as it essentially doubles your chance of drawing a skull icon!

Hi @FBones thank you so much for this amazing guide. I know it's like 6 years later lol.... Could you please let me know what were the rest of the upgrades you made through the campaign would really appreciate. I'm going to post the same thing on your Jenny Barnes guide. Thank you again.